Conditions: Baltimore, Maryland, 03/28/2024 09:10:03 am
Temperature

48°

Cloudy with Mist and Fog

47°

Dew Point
Relative Humidity

96%

Feels Like

46°

Wind (WNW)

5mph

Air Pressure

30.01

Sun
Sun Rise

06:56 AM

Sun Set

07:26 PM

Day Length

12:30 Hours

Difference

2 min 34 sec gain

Moon
Moon Rise

11:05 PM

Moon Set

08:19 AM

Next: Last Quarter

Apr 01,2024

Moon Phase

Waning Gibbous

Climate
Average Low

37°

58°

Average High
Record Low

21°


(1982)

87°


(1945)
Record High
Conditions

New Year Brings New Weather Pattern and Possible Winter Storm

Coastal Storm
Maryland Weather
Outlook
Winter Weather
Forecast

Monday, January 1, 2024

In typical El Niño fashion, the turn of the calendar brings a change in the weather pattern to a more wintry outlook. In fact, 75% of the snow we tend to see in moderate to strong El Niño winters occurs after January 15. What we see today is promising and a little quicker. It is also cause for caution.

Before we dive into this New Year special, I need to emphasize a few things. By now, you might have already seen some maps or posts on social media about a major winter storm next weekend. Well, it is Monday, and that possible storm could be on Sunday. I will not be so bold as to promise anything this far away.

My purpose, now that we are within the one-week time frame, is to look for trends and focus on the developing pattern.

Also this:

  • It is too early to plot a specific storm timeline. It has not formed yet.
  • It is too early to plot any rain/snow line. It has not formed yet.
  • It is too early to suggest how much snow may fall. Computer models may show something, but I believe it is irresponsible to post any snow numbers beyond 72 hours. I’ve been doing this a long time, and most often storms do not play out as first shown. Also, snow suggestions are nearly impossible before the storm actually forms.

Model Trend

There has been consistence over the last 36 hours. That’s a good sign for now. We will get into the latest model run below.

January 1 winter storm plots

 

Miller B Storm or Miller A Storm?

The recent suggestion was a primary Low tracking through the MidWest, then transferring energy to a powerful coastal storm. This would be the snowmaker for the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. However, this morning, the same GFS Model solution was keeping one primary Low as the focus, but suppressed it farther south and east. This still keeps us in the running but is far from the final call.

 

Mid-Week Snow Showers?

I am still seeing potential flurries or snow showers on Thursday with this split energy. It is a signal of the changing pattern.

January 1 weather snow Thursday

Jet Stream: Thu Jan 4 to Wed Jan 10

A few impulses will swing through over the next 10 days.

January 1 jet stream winter storm

 

Snapshot Sunday, January 7

This brings us a supply of cold air to feed into the coastal Low.

January 1 jet stream winter storm Sunday

 

Storm Forecast Suggestion

GFS Model 7 AM Sat to 7 AM Mon

This solution now shows one primary Low passing off the Mid-Atlantic coast, with the upper-level energy keeping the snow lingering into Sunday night.

January 1 winter storm forecast

 

Snapshots

Saturday Night

The arrival of the snow…

January 1 winter storm Saturday night

 

Sunday Morning

The Coastal Low is east of Virginia Beach. This is farther east and pulls the snow through southern Maryland. I am skeptical of this call at this time.

January 1 winter storm Sunday morning

 

Sunday Night

The primary Low moves well off the coast, but upper-level support keeps accumulating snow falling.

January 1 winter storm Sunday night

 

NOT THE ONLY SOLUTION

Recall that this has not even formed yet. We are trying to link up elements in the atmosphere 5 days away, and other models put them together differently.

 

Canadian GEM Model

For contrast, let’s see a completely different setup that will help explain why I am hesitant to call this a blizzard or even a snowstorm. Here, we will see a warmer inland track with a more wintry mix (pink).

7 AM Sat Jan 6 to 7 PM Sun Jan 7

January 1 weather winter storm Canadian model

 

Snapshots

7 PM Sat Jan 6

This arrives much sooner than the GFS with a wintry mix of slush or ice. Considering the Ravens game hosting the Steelers was moved to Saturday afternoon, this may need to be considered as a possibility.

 January 1 winter storm Saturday night ice

 

 

7 AM Sun Jan 7

If this solution is correct, then the storm for us will be a short event and over by this time. It would also be a New England snowstorm instead.

 January 1 winter storm Sunday Canadian

 

My Thoughts

I expect there will be more adjustments over the next few days. I NEVER lock in on a storm one week away… I would rather look for any trends in the modeling to hold or change the storm. I will also be looking at various different models to see if they are converging on a similar solution or continue to vary widely.

I stand by my principle of 72 hours before the start to get any idea of how much and what we can legitimately expect.

Patience and Faith in the Flakes. This is looking better than the last few years, for sure.

 

Long Range Trend

The European Model forecast for the North Atlantic Oscillation shows a long-term Negative status. This supports colder storms.

January 1 North Atlantic Oscillation

 

 

 

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RECENT Winter Outlook Reports:

My Winter Outlook: More Snow

Snow Outlook Winter 2024

 

El Niño Winter Updates

Late November: Warm Water Shifts West In Pacific Could Mean More Snow For Eastern US

El Nino Sea Surface Temperatures November 22

 

Computer Models Support East Coast Storm Track

Winter Precipitation El Nino CFSv2 Model

 

El Niño Advisory

The latest NOAA report is confident in a Very Strong event. Possibly HISTORIC! This refers to the temperatures in the Pacific, with impacts on the US Winter Storm Track.

El Nino November 2023 

 

 

Winter Weather Folklore: Top 20 and more signals from nature for snow.

 

NOAA’s Winter Outlook 2024

Winter Outlook 2024 From Two Farmers Almanacs Return to Cold and Snow

 

Explore More

Maryland Snow Climate History And Other Winter Pages

Faith in the Flakes Gear

 

STEM Assemblies/In School Fields Trips Are Back

Click to see more and ‘Book’ a visit to your school

 

Please share your thoughts and best weather pics/videos, or just keep in touch via social media

 

RESTATING MY MESSAGE ABOUT DYSLEXIA

I am aware there are some spelling and grammar typos and occasional other glitches. I take responsibility for my mistakes and even the computer glitches I may miss. I have made a few public statements over the years, but if you are new here, you may have missed it: I have dyslexia and found out during my second year at Cornell University. It didn’t stop me from getting my meteorology degree and being the first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region. One of my professors told me that I had made it that far without knowing and to not let it be a crutch going forward. That was Mark Wysocki, and he was absolutely correct! I do miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does an injustice to make it worse. I also can make mistakes in forecasting. No one is perfect at predicting the future. All of the maps and information are accurate. The ‘wordy’ stuff can get sticky.  There has been no editor who can check my work when I need it and have it ready to send out in a newsworthy timeline. Barbara Werner is a member of the web team that helps me maintain this site. She has taken it upon herself to edit typos when she is available. That could be AFTER you read this. I accept this and perhaps proves what you read is really from me… It’s part of my charm.

#FITF