New Year Brings New Weather Pattern and Possible Winter Storm
Monday, January 1, 2024
In typical El Niño fashion, the turn of the calendar brings a change in the weather pattern to a more wintry outlook. In fact, 75% of the snow we tend to see in moderate to strong El Niño winters occurs after January 15. What we see today is promising and a little quicker. It is also cause for caution.
Before we dive into this New Year special, I need to emphasize a few things. By now, you might have already seen some maps or posts on social media about a major winter storm next weekend. Well, it is Monday, and that possible storm could be on Sunday. I will not be so bold as to promise anything this far away.
My purpose, now that we are within the one-week time frame, is to look for trends and focus on the developing pattern.
Also this:
- It is too early to plot a specific storm timeline. It has not formed yet.
- It is too early to plot any rain/snow line. It has not formed yet.
- It is too early to suggest how much snow may fall. Computer models may show something, but I believe it is irresponsible to post any snow numbers beyond 72 hours. I’ve been doing this a long time, and most often storms do not play out as first shown. Also, snow suggestions are nearly impossible before the storm actually forms.
Model Trend
There has been consistence over the last 36 hours. That’s a good sign for now. We will get into the latest model run below.
Miller B Storm or Miller A Storm?
The recent suggestion was a primary Low tracking through the MidWest, then transferring energy to a powerful coastal storm. This would be the snowmaker for the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. However, this morning, the same GFS Model solution was keeping one primary Low as the focus, but suppressed it farther south and east. This still keeps us in the running but is far from the final call.
Mid-Week Snow Showers?
I am still seeing potential flurries or snow showers on Thursday with this split energy. It is a signal of the changing pattern.
Jet Stream: Thu Jan 4 to Wed Jan 10
A few impulses will swing through over the next 10 days.
Snapshot Sunday, January 7
This brings us a supply of cold air to feed into the coastal Low.
Storm Forecast Suggestion
GFS Model 7 AM Sat to 7 AM Mon
This solution now shows one primary Low passing off the Mid-Atlantic coast, with the upper-level energy keeping the snow lingering into Sunday night.
Snapshots
Saturday Night
The arrival of the snow…
Sunday Morning
The Coastal Low is east of Virginia Beach. This is farther east and pulls the snow through southern Maryland. I am skeptical of this call at this time.
Sunday Night
The primary Low moves well off the coast, but upper-level support keeps accumulating snow falling.
NOT THE ONLY SOLUTION
Recall that this has not even formed yet. We are trying to link up elements in the atmosphere 5 days away, and other models put them together differently.
Canadian GEM Model
For contrast, let’s see a completely different setup that will help explain why I am hesitant to call this a blizzard or even a snowstorm. Here, we will see a warmer inland track with a more wintry mix (pink).
7 AM Sat Jan 6 to 7 PM Sun Jan 7
Snapshots
7 PM Sat Jan 6
This arrives much sooner than the GFS with a wintry mix of slush or ice. Considering the Ravens game hosting the Steelers was moved to Saturday afternoon, this may need to be considered as a possibility.
7 AM Sun Jan 7
If this solution is correct, then the storm for us will be a short event and over by this time. It would also be a New England snowstorm instead.
My Thoughts
I expect there will be more adjustments over the next few days. I NEVER lock in on a storm one week away… I would rather look for any trends in the modeling to hold or change the storm. I will also be looking at various different models to see if they are converging on a similar solution or continue to vary widely.
I stand by my principle of 72 hours before the start to get any idea of how much and what we can legitimately expect.
Patience and Faith in the Flakes. This is looking better than the last few years, for sure.
Long Range Trend
The European Model forecast for the North Atlantic Oscillation shows a long-term Negative status. This supports colder storms.
Subscribe for eMail Alerts
Weather posts straight to your inbox
Sign up and be the first to know!
RECENT Winter Outlook Reports:
My Winter Outlook: More Snow
El Niño Winter Updates
Late November: Warm Water Shifts West In Pacific Could Mean More Snow For Eastern US
Computer Models Support East Coast Storm Track
The latest NOAA report is confident in a Very Strong event. Possibly HISTORIC! This refers to the temperatures in the Pacific, with impacts on the US Winter Storm Track.
Winter Weather Folklore: Top 20 and more signals from nature for snow.
Winter Outlook 2024 From Two Farmers Almanacs Return to Cold and Snow
Explore More
Maryland Snow Climate History And Other Winter Pages
Faith in the Flakes Gear
STEM Assemblies/In School Fields Trips Are Back
Click to see more and ‘Book’ a visit to your school
Please share your thoughts and best weather pics/videos, or just keep in touch via social media
-
Facebook: Justin Berk, Meteorologist
-
Twitter
-
Instagram
RESTATING MY MESSAGE ABOUT DYSLEXIA
I am aware there are some spelling and grammar typos and occasional other glitches. I take responsibility for my mistakes and even the computer glitches I may miss. I have made a few public statements over the years, but if you are new here, you may have missed it: I have dyslexia and found out during my second year at Cornell University. It didn’t stop me from getting my meteorology degree and being the first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region. One of my professors told me that I had made it that far without knowing and to not let it be a crutch going forward. That was Mark Wysocki, and he was absolutely correct! I do miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does an injustice to make it worse. I also can make mistakes in forecasting. No one is perfect at predicting the future. All of the maps and information are accurate. The ‘wordy’ stuff can get sticky. There has been no editor who can check my work when I need it and have it ready to send out in a newsworthy timeline. Barbara Werner is a member of the web team that helps me maintain this site. She has taken it upon herself to edit typos when she is available. That could be AFTER you read this. I accept this and perhaps proves what you read is really from me… It’s part of my charm.
#FITF