January 1 2023
Sunday Morning Report
After the rain and fog overnight, it looks like we are off to the races for clearing and New Year’s Day sun. There will be clouds mixing in, but at least we have the warming to get outdoors and start those healthy goals.
Today will be mild, and much better for fans attending the Ravens football game tonight.
A few days in the 60s on the way, which will come with:
Dense Fog: We might do it again tonight/Monday morning.
With the moisture, the air has warmed mostly into the 40s and 50s.
Much of the eastern half of the nation is mild and will be getting warmer. This is in respect to an active stormy west, where snow is falling in the Rockies. That storm track will push to the western Great Lakes. We will get warmer, into the 60s, for next start of the work week. That same warmth will feed into the energy of the next storm, making lightning and thunder possible for us. There will be a severe storm outbreak in the south.
We still have a chance to get close to 60ºF in some areas. This will depend in part to how much the sunshine holds out.
Remaining mild (40s) for the Ravens game.
Normal Low in Baltimore: 27ºF
Record -6ºF in 1881
SNOW: 4.3” 1947
Normal High in Baltimore: 44ºF
Record 67ºF 2005
In case you missed this, I explain the stable circulation now and disruption forecast by mid January. Compare to 3 recent winters that were similar: Record warmth was followed by record snow.
This mild start may also have areas of thick fog.
Off to the races with the warming!
The large storm will be responsible for pumping warmer air in this week. With that, we eventually get rain showers Tuesday afternoon and evening. This will culminate with heavy rain on Wednesday and perhaps even some thunder.
“If in winter there is thunder, snow may fall in one week or under”.
The models are still not in full agreement on how this may play out, but both the European AND GFS Model are trying to generate some form of snow falling.
Snow Showers, but nothing substantial.
A more robust burst of snow in the afternoon. This has been the more aggressive solution.
I would still like to see if the trend holds one more day before getting more confident with snow on Friday. I am putting it in the extended forecast, but given the temps, it does not look like it will be an impact (at this time).
Note: This will NOT BE the pattern change. This is a blip in the warm pattern, and we will warm again the following week. The expected change in the jet stream is more likely in the middle and later half of the month. FITF
Warming with rain mid week. Wednesday might bring some thunder, followed by a chance for some snow falling on Friday.
December 5th Snow In Baltimore And The Start Of Faith In The Flakes FITF
Click to see more and ‘Book’ a visit to your school
I see many factors to support colder influence with multiple systems. Early and later in winter. Check it out.
Winter Outlook 2023 For Snow Not Typical La Niña Plus Polar Vortex Disruption
Atmospheric Memory Suggests Active Winter Storm Pattern Outlook
Winter Outlook 2023 From NOAA Very Different Than Farmers Almanacs
Winter Outlook 2023 Early Look At Snow From Two Farmers Almanacs
If you want a snowy winter, this is what you might want to look for in the rest of the tropical season. (You might be seeing a lot of commercial snow removal people out this Winter).
Record August For No Named Tropical Storms: Closer Look At Snow Following
Winter Weather Folklore Top 20 And More Outlook Signals From Nature For Cold And Snow
