October 31 2022

This is not going to be the best evening for kids in our region. We finally made it out of the Covid restrictions, but now wet weather is going to literally dampen some trick-or-treating.  I will celebrate the brave kids and parents and be out there handing snacks. Sadly my kids have outgrown my touring them around. 

But I still understand the importance and wanted to show you the expected rain that has been moving in all afternoon. It has arrived earlier and will be building in heavier. So while I did have this in my forecast for a few days, it seems it will be more of a dominating force. Below you will see the developing system, LIVE RADAR and forecast simulation. 

Basically, plan to get wet. Carry an umbrella, wear a coat (if possible) over the costume as the show must go on!

Doppler Radar Loop: 1:15 PM to 4 PM

Snapshot Forecast at 4 PM

HRRR Model

I wanted to compare this short range simulation to the actual 4 PM scan on Doppler to see how well the model is performing. If anything, the rain might be arriving a little sooner.

Radar Simulation: 4 PM to 9 PM

HRRR Model

Here we see the expanding rain as this ‘weakening’ system seems to be getting resurgence across The Mid Atlantic.

See the individual snapshots below.

Live Radar Widget

The rain has moved in earlier and heavier than the model suggested.

Timeline Snapshots

5 PM

If it is not raining at this time by you, it may start shortly. Solid rain expanding Northeast from Virginia.

6 PM

More rain will fill in from Virginia, cross Washington, into metro Baltimore.

7 PM

Much of central Maryland, southern Maryland, and into southern Pennsylvania will getting wet.

8 PM

Steady rain will cover much of the region in central Maryland, southern Pennsylvania, and through Philadelphia.

World Series Game 3 Rain

The center of sports world is in Philadelphia. Not only home of Eagles, the NFL’s only undefeated team, but also the World Series Game tonight.  The Phillies will be hosting the Astros in Philadelphia for Game 3 scheduled for tonight at 8:03 PM. However, I believe the weather may change that. Yes, a delay or postponement is very possible.

Rain already played a big role in the playoffs just up the road in New York when the Yankees had two games delayed against the Guardians. 

The double edged sword here is that it is Halloween, and the rain that will be affecting metro Washington and Baltimore Trick-or-Treaters is heading towards Philadelphia in time for the start of the game.

8 PM Snapshot

Spotlight on Philadelphia

7 PM Monday to 1 AM Tuesday

I’ve chosen this time frame to account for pre-game arrival time.   

See the individual time stamps below.

Key Time Frames

Note that the model plots are a suggestion, but could use a buffer of an hour so.

8 PM

Expected start time.

9 PM

If there is a delay, the rain may become steadier.

10 PM

The rain is expected to be more widespread, even heavy at times.

11 PM

By this point, if the game is not called, there is still a high risk of more rain to continue.

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